Publicado: Jue, Febrero 14, 2019
Financiera | Por Marilu Caballero

Goldman: 'Shock And Awe' OPEC Cuts To Send Oil Higher Soon

Goldman: 'Shock And Awe' OPEC Cuts To Send Oil Higher Soon

The IEA said oil prices had not increased "alarmingly" since USA sanctions were imposed on Venezuela because the market is still working off the surpluses built up in the second half of 2018 - when global supply was estimated to have exceeded demand by 1.3 million barrels per day (b/d).

OPEC also said that it expected the world's appetite for oil to grow by 1.24 million barrels, around a 1.3 percent increase in global annual demand, which is expected to reach 100 million barrels in 2019.

US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, together with OPEC's output cuts, have therefore removed mostly medium and heavy oils from the market, leaving lighter grades relatively unaffected.

Given OPEC-kingpin Saudi's depth of relationship with Unites States, one of the recent evidences of which could be a Central Intelligence Agency cover-up of Saudi Journalist Jamal Khashoggi's high-rated murder on Saudi Crown Price, Mohammed bin Salman's order, OPEC was expected to give a cold shoulder to Maduro's call, multiple analysts commented following the reveal of OPEC response.

Although the USA reimposed oil export sanctions last November, it gave a six-month exemption or wavier to eight friendly countries: China, India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Turkey, Italy and Greece to continue buying a restricted quantity of Iranian oil, but it is uncertain if Washington will extend the waivers beyond May.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released a report, saying that United States crude oil production averaged 12 mb/d in January, up 90,000 b/d from December.

Iran's January oil production is the lowest level since October 2014, during the tightest period of previous round of worldwide sanctions (2012-2016), imposed on Iran's oil exports.

The decrease by the group of 14 producer countries - which has long manipulated oil output to influence global prices in members' favor - brought total production to 30.81 million barrels per day in the month, the report said citing secondary sources.

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With more than 20 years' trading experience, Ed Moya is a market analyst with OANDA, producing up-to-the-minute fundamental analysis of geo-political events and monetary policies in the US, Europe, the Middle East and North Africa.

Venezuela has tried to find alternative customers, especially in Asia, but under United States pressure many buyers there are also shying away from dealing with PDVSA. OPEC and other countries will either have to continue curbing extraction to maintain prices in the future or accept an energy independent USA and the likely oversupply of energy that would bring to the market.

Brent oil prices rose on Wednesday after top exporter Saudi Arabia said it would cut crude exports and deliver an even deeper cut to its production while U.S. futures gained on a decline in domestic oil inventories.

In the two weeks since the sanctions were announced, Venezuela's crude exports have reportedly tapered off and shifted toward to cash-paying buyers - such as India.

While remaining volatile, oil prices have rallied to just above $60 a barrel and jumped more than a dollar after the Opec production update.

"In quantity terms, in 2019, the USA alone will grow its crude oil production by more than Venezuela's current output".

John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

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