Publicado: Sáb, Marcha 10, 2018
Financiera | Por Marilu Caballero

Global oil supply 'will match demand until 2020'

Global oil supply 'will match demand until 2020'

Global oil demand is forecast to rise from 97.8 million barrels a day now to 104.7 million by 2023, with China remaining as the principal driver of growth.

Dr Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the IEA, said: "The US is set to put its stamp on global oil markets for the next five years". The group will add 750,000 barrels per day by 2023 - only 2.1%, as the higher yields in Iran and Iraq will be overshadowed by the economically troubled Venezuela where capacity will plummet to the lowest levels of 1940s.

Rising prices have USA shale producers pumping more, sending total US output to an all-time record above 10 million barrels per day. Output should rise by only 100,000 barrels per day in 2023. OPEC officials and US shale producers met for second consecutive year for dinner and "compared notes" after a hard period of low oil prices - with few signs the two sides are growing fonder of each other.

But prices were still supported as market participants were eyeing an upcoming meeting between OPEC oil ministers and USA shale firms scheduled later Monday in Houston for the largest energy industry conference, CERAWeek.

Rising US output has influenced oil prices in recent months. That was the year that the price for oil in the US surged close to $150.

Meanwhile, non-OPEC production is set to increase as much as 5.2 million barrels per day by 2023 to 63.3 million barrels per day, with the USA alone accounting for more than half of global supply growth. If US government forecasts prove right, the industry will add another million barrels a day of extra oil production this year.

"Shale oil, I don't know how we are going to live together", former Opec Secretary-General Abdalla Salem El-Badri told United States oilmen in 2016. Adding in some 4.7 million barrels a day of other liquids, USA liquids production is expected to total almost 17 million barrels a day.

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The American Petroleum Institute (API) will release its weekly inventory data at 9.30pm GMT on Tuesday, and the USA energy department's Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports its data at 3.30pm GMT on Wednesday.

"If you reduce geopolitical risk in the world, it might be a better place to do business and that could be bullish", said Phil Flynn, analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago.

The shift represents a major challenge to the oil industry, as numerous petrochemicals will be produced using gas, cutting out refineries.

By approaching 2023, the global markets will begin to tighten and the IEA has warned that more investment will be needed to meet higher consumption and offset production lost in natural downturns.

Between 2011 and early 2014, OPEC focused on supporting prices, despite losing market share to US shale firms.

Saudi Arabia said last week it hoped the agreement could be relaxed next year and followed by a permanent framework to stabilize oil markets after the deal expires.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Tuesday it expects domestic oil production to surpass 11 million barrels per day late this year.

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